Posts in category: 2015

It’s been some time since I’ve been able to write up an article but with the playoffs in full swing it’s about time I got my butt back in gear. One of the hardest problems for me this season has been evaluating return yard players. I hit big on Jarvis Landry and Tyler Lockett during my draft but deciding to flex Lockett or not has been a dilemma all year. Return yards fluctuate from week to week based on game flow and most websites don’t calculate them into their predictions. Looking deeper into the numbers I wanted to share my findings with others incase I can help push them onto that coveted championship podium, so without further ado I present my predictions for some of the premier return yard players in week 15 and 16.

Jarvis “Juice” Landry – Miami Dolphins | 9.7 Yards / Punt Return | 24.7 Yards / KO Return

My main man and rock to many fantasy teams. In PPR and return yard leagues Landry is a must start. He is currently 10th in return yards for the season, but unlike most returners he has a lead role in the offense. He has a good week 15 Return matchup followed by a horrid matchup against the Colts in week 16.

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Week 15 San Diego Chargers  Vegas (MIA 24-13)

1005 Return Yards allowed  (71/game) | 56.90% Kick off touch back percentage

32 ko yards 38 punt yards

70 Predicted Total Return Yards

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Week 16 Indianapolis Colts

497 Return Yards allowed (35/game)

84.13% Kick off touch back percentage

(Waiting on Vegas Odds)

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Tyler “Rocket” Lockett – Seattle SeaHawks | 6.5 Yards / Punt Return | 26.2 Yards / KO Return

A breakout rookie and really turning on the after burners the last few weeks. He seems to be fully integrated into the Seahawks offense. While Baldwin may be the WR1, I feel that in return leagues Lockett’s floor can’t be overlooked. #3 in return yards so far this season he has a great week 15 and a tough week 16 matchup as far as return yards go.

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Week 15 Cleveland Browns | Vegas (SEA 44-18)

1044 Return Yards allowed  (74/game) | 43.10% Kick off touch back percentage

53 ko yards 22 punt yards

75 Predicted Total Return Yards

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Week 16 St. Louis Rams

665 Return Yards allowed  (47/game)

62.75% Kick off touch back percentage

(Waiting on Vegas Odds)

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Dwane Harris – New York Giants | 11.0 Yards / Punt Return |29.1 Yards / KO Return

The WR3 for the Giants looks to continue his return yard dominance throughout the playoffs. Keeping with the pattern, Harris has a great week 15 matchup followed by a middle of the pack week 16. The Giants targeted him 5 times in week 14, combined with his return yards gives you a safe floor for those looking for potential boom with minimal bust.

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Week 15 Carolina Panthers | Vegas (CAR 37-20)

1113 Return Yards allowed  (79/game)

62.79% Kick off touch back percentage

67 ko yards 34 punt yards

101 Predicted Total Return Yards

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Week 16 San Diego Chargers

827 Return Yards allowed  (59/game)

56.90% Kick off touch back percentage

(Waiting on Vegas Odds)

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Ted Ginn – Carolina Panthers | 9.7  Yards / Punt Return

Talking about boom or bust it’s MR. 2 for 120 and 2 TDs. While he only has 241 return yards on the season, if you are looking for a player with BOOM! here he is. Owned in only 13% of NFL leagues he can be picked up in most leagues. His week 15 match up against the Giants, who gave up 100 yards to Landry last week, is great while week 16 is less than stellar against the Falcons.  He has been targeted for at least one bomb pass almost every week and against a weak Giants secondary week 15 looks to be a boom week, as long as he doesn’t drop wide open passes as he has been known to do.

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Week 15 New York Giants | Vegas (CAR 37-20)

1191 Return Yards allowed  (85/game)

40.79% Kick off touch back percentage

29 punt yards

29 Predicted Punt Return Yards

(Waiting on Vegas Odds)

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Week 16 Atlanta Falcons

717 Return Yards allowed  (51/game)

69.35% Kick off touch back percentage

(Waiting on Vegas Odds)

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Josh “Who?” Huff – Philadelphia Eagles and Markus Wheaton – Pittsburg Steelers

While some players are absolute play makers at special teams and have great return yard averages, these are not those guys. Just like WR and RB return yards are mostly from opportunity, a receiver who gets 10 targets or a RB with 20 touches will put up some points no matter how talented they are. This is that situation. Huff and Wheaton are the kickoff returners in weeks 15 and 16 facing the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards get special mention as they have given up over 1000 kickoff yards this season. Their high-powered offense leads to more scores and those scores to return attempts. Huff could be a descent desperation play in Deep leagues while Wheaton will have a respectable floor being on a high-powered offense of his own.

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Week 15 Arizona Cardinals | Vegas week 15 (ARI 40-28)

1043 Kickoff Return Yards allowed  (74/game)

48.78% Kick off touch back percentage

79 Predicted KO Return Yards

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Iv been swamped with life and haven’t been able to write for some while but things have finally cleared up and we can dive right back into fantasy land together.

Championships are won and lost by the waiver wire. Last year I was led to the playoffs by Forsett and then was quickly crushed by C.J. Anderson. Being the first to pick up breakout players is everything in fantasy football, so lets get back into things and ready for week 5.

Ronnie Hillman – RB – Denver Broncos (30% owned)

Kinda funny that a top add from my last article would still be a top add for week 5.

Hopefully you already have him sitting on your bench because soon it will be his time to shine. This week Hillman broke off an electric 72 yard run for a Touchdown. He had 103 yards on only 11 carries.  Kubiak has finally said that Hillman “Deserves more touches” which is hard to deny when comparing him to CJ Anderson who also had 11 carries, but could only manage 43 yards with them.  While Hillman won’t become the lead back immediately, Kubiak has said they are going to split carries evenly for now. If the trend continues Hillman will be the lead back soon enough and by then he won’t be on the wire. Right now Hillman can be seen as a lowed RB2 with huge upside if he gets more touches.

Duke Johnson – RB – Cleveland Browns (30% owned)

Looking to be a good PPR play, Duke has had 15 receptions the past 2 weeks, and the Browns finally look like they are going to follow their plan of getting him out in space. Crowell will remain the early down back for now but Johnson has found him in a situation similar to Danny Woodhead.  His catches each week should keep his floor high.  As much as I didn’t expect it, the Browns are looking more and more like a throwing team. You can expect Johnson to be a Low RB 2 to Flex play in PPR Leagues and more if his role continues to progress.

Leonard Hankers – WR – Atlanta Falcons (15% owned)

Coming into the season Roddy White was Atlanta’s WR2 but to anyone paying attention you know that ship has long since sailed. White owners can consider him droppable after last week. He has a total of 2 receptions for 8 yards over the last 3 games. With such a poor stat line who has been receiving all the work? Thats right Leonard Hankers. Atlanta’s real WR2 has had 15 receptions for 225 yards and 2 Touchdowns in the same three week span. He should be added in all leagues and formats and is a decent WR3.

Owen Daniels – TE – Denver Broncos (50 % owned)

Now this is one that is owned in most leagues but I think should be touched on. After his mediocre start to the season he may have been dropped in your league, but he is primed to go off in week 5. Why do you ask because next week Denver plays Oakland. The Raiders have given up HUGE points to tight ends every week so far. Were not talking about them getting gashed by Gronk either. We are talking about playing against the Browns and the Bears. Here are the fantasy scores against Oakland so far this year.

Week 1	22.4
Week 2	20.8
Week 3	16.5
Week 4	14.3

Although more of a steaming option than a season long investment. He may be worth your waiver pick considering others could be looking at him to cover their bye weeks.

Tier 1:	Adrian Peterson	Jamaal Charles	Antonio Brown	Le’Veon Bell	Julio Jones
Tier 2:	Rob Gronkowsk	Odell Beckham Jr.	Justin Forsett	Matt Forte	LeSean McCoy	Latavius Murray,	Demaryius Thomas
Tier 3:	Randall Cobb	Jeremy Hill	Mark Ingram	Christopher Ivory	A.J. Green	Carlos Hyde
Tier 4:	Jonathan Stewart	Julian Edelman	Emmanuel Sanders	Calvin Johnson	DeAndre Hopkins	C.J. Anderson	Eddie Lacy
Tier 5:	Brandon Marshall	DeMarco Murray	Joseph Randle	Frank Gore
Tier 6:	Alfred Morris	Jarvis Landry	Melvin Gordon	Dion Lewis	Danny Woodhead	Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 7:	Lamar Miller	Jordan Matthews	T.J. Yeldon	Allen Robinson	Travis Kelce	Isaiah Crowell	T.Y. Hilton
Tier 8:	Doug Martin	Amari Cooper	Mike Evans	Devonta Freeman	Ameer Abdullah	Giovani Bernard	Keenan Allen	Jeremy Maclin	Matt Jones
Tier 9:	Jimmy Graham	Greg Olsen	Steve Smith	Brandin Cooks
Tier 10:	John Brown	LeGarrette Blount	Sammy Watkins	Terrance Williams	Tyler Eifert
Tier 11:	Donte Moncrief	Vincent Jackson	Bishop Sankey	David Johnson	Davante Adams	Pierre Garcon	Steve Johnson
Tier 12:	James Jones	Jordan Reed	Rashad Jennings	Golden Tate	Kendall Wright
Tier 13:	Martellus Bennett	Anquan Boldin	Mike Wallace	Shane Vereen	Chris Johnson	Roddy White	Andre Johnson

Week one is in the books and boy does it feel good to be back in the swing of things. We cheered, we cried and we won or we lost, but now we have to look forward to week 2.

Championships are won and lost by the waiver wire. Last year I was led to the playoffs by Forsett and then was quickly crushed by C.J. Anderson. Being the first to pick up breakout players is everything in fantasy football, so lets start off where last season ended. Here are my waiver adds for week 2.

Ronnie Hillman – RB – Denver Broncos (30% owned)

Coach Gary Kubiak has commented on reports of C.J. Anderson’s possible sprained toe saying that he is “fine,” but in Sunday’s game Denver’s backfield looked to transition into a committee as both C.J. and Ronnie Hillman saw 12 carries with Hillman edging out Anderson 41 yards to 29.  If reports are true about Anderson’s potential injury it could lead to Hillman getting an increased workload. He is the handcuff to have and if he continues to out perform he could be the main back in Denver soon enough. This is more of a prospective add, but one that could have incredible value.

Chris Johnson – RB – Arizona Cardinals (10% owned)

This one strikes close to home owning Ellington on a few of my fantasy teams. I sat watching Carson Palmer lead the Cards to victory when Andre Ellington fell to the ground without contact. Ellington is known to be a health risk and owners knew something could happen to him, but they probably didn’t think it would happen in game one. Ellington has a Grade 1 PCL sprain and is estimated to be out two to three weeks. Bruce Arians has announced that Johnson will be the “lead dog” in Arizona and although his 10-carry 39-yard performance was underwhelming in the coming weeks he should be a plug and play for any team needing a running back. If you are in need for a short-term running back Johnson is worth a pick up, but I wouldn’t spend a #1 waiver on him.

DeAngelo Williams – RB – Pittsburgh Steelers (40% owned)

Another short term RB add, DeAngelo Williams showed he can be very fantasy productive while Le’Veon bell is suspended. DeAngelo looked terrific on Thursday cutting through the Patriots defense. He ran for 127 yards on 21 carries and should do similar work next week against the 49ers. Keep in mind his fantasy value drops to 0 in week 3 upon Bells return and is only for those in need of a temporary RB fix. He will be a high-end RB2 next week.

Donte Moncrief – WR – Indianapolis Colts (10% owned)

Reports suggest that T.Y. Hilton could miss time next week with an injury to his left knee. The entire Colts team was shut down and his absence certainly didn’t help. WR2 Andre Johnson showed his age and for me didn’t pass the eye test, making room for Moncrief to come into fantasy relevance this year. Last year he was hidden in the depth chart, but on Sunday Moncrief was a shining star in the Colt’s receiving core catching 6 passes for 46 yards and a TD on 10 targets. He is a solid add in all formats and league sizes and if T.Y does miss significant time then his value rockets up from there.

Tyler Eifert– TE – Cincinnati Bengals (15 % owned)

It saddens me that he is already owned in all of my leagues, but if he isn’t in yours, then pick him up, even if you already have a TE. If you don’t someone else will. Eifert has been a breakout candidate this year and he sure delivered in week 1. He had 9 catches for 104 yards and two TDs. He was the second target after A.J. Green and had lots of looks in the red zone. Don’t expect this kind of production week to week, but expect him to top his 2014 season and have the potential to finish the season as a top 5 TE. With the position scarcity at TE and the number of targets he is getting he is a must add in all leagues.

“Start your studs.” Advice that any fantasy manager should listen too, but whom do you start when you have no studs? No matter if it’s a bye week or injuries, here are some favorable matchups that you can snag off the wire for week 1.

Week one we will be covering the three most streamed positions of 2015. The QB, TE, and DST.

Quarter Back

Carson Palmer

This week Palmer returns from last years ACL tear and will be playing against a lacking Saint’s defense. They will be missing both their top corner Keenan Lewis and their free safety Jairus Byrd. Targets such as John Brown and Andre Ellington should expect to reap the fantasy benefits as the Cardinals look to score big this week with a projected score of 25.5 points. Owned in a little over half of Yahoo Leagues he is a great pick for week one.

Andy Dalton

You may not believe it but Dalton was a top 10 quarterback when facing poor defenses last season. The Raiders were the 28th ranked passing defense last year and should be near the same in 2015. Dalton has statistically played best when his team is ahead and Cincinnati is favored in this match up. In 2013 he was a top 5 QB for the season, which people soon forget after a down 2014 season. His Number one wide receiver AJ Green will be back at full heath in 2015 and barring bad weather conditions Dalton should have a solid week one this year.

Tight End

Larry Donnell

With Victor Cruz out for week 1, expect Donnell to start the season out hot. Odell Beckham Jr. will be mostly double teamed, leaving him and Rueben Randle as the next receiving targets. The Cowboys are a soft matchup for tight ends, giving up the third most fantasy points to tight ends and the second most yards in the 2014 season. Donnell is owned in around 50% of Yahoo Leagues and is a good pick if you’re lacking a tight end.

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes you read that right Tampa Bay. Playing at home and favored, they are one of Vegas’ lowest scoring games of the week. They play against the Titan’s rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota in his first NFL game. All circumstances point to a perfect steaming situation for week one. They are owned in 5% of leagues and we have them predicted as the #4 DST for the week.

New York Jets

Matched up against one of the worst defenses in the league, the Jets are playing at home. They face a team with both questionable quarterbacks and receivers allowing them to focus on the run. The game is set for an over-under of just 40 points. The Jets defense is already substantial, but in this match-up we have them predicted as the #6 DST for the week.

The year of the Quarterback…or not.

The NFL is in a strange time where there are more good quarterbacks than not. The days of Schaub, Henne, Orton, Sanchez and Campbell are long gone and have been replaced by quarterbacks who can make good throws in a league where the ground and pound is being replaced by the air attack. Wide receivers are protected, the fullback position is being phased out, and offenses are striving to become faster as a whole. Half the quarterbacks in the league threw over 450 passes last year and RBs are getting less carries while more of their touches come via the passing game. Well you should probably take a good quarterback early right?

As counterintuitive as it might seem, you need to forget about quarterbacks on draft day. Most leagues only allow you to start one, so you are going to have some pretty good ones available to you even if you wait. It’s an important position in the NFL, so people think that translates to their importance in fantasy football. It’s not to say that there isn’t some overlap between the two. If you had Tom Brady during his fifty-touchdown season then you probably won your league’s championship, but that isn’t going to happen too often so you have to treat that as an outlier and look at quarterbacks as a whole.

Position scarcity is the name of the game and the quarterback position is the most abundant. If that doesn’t make sense then just think about the amount of roster spots you need to dedicate to skill positions. Assuming you are playing in a standard league then each owner has to start two running backs, two wide receivers and a flex. That is fifty or so players who will be drafted to start, and if every owner uses three or four of their bench spots to get backups, that number goes up to ninety.  That number can change, but the central idea does not, skill positions are a commodity.

The numbers I used are based on a league where receptions are worth half a point and quarterbacks only get four per touchdown. The top five players last year were Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Antonio Brown, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. If you expand the list to ten then you add Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Le’Veon Bell, Matt Ryan and Demarco Murray. Only three of the top ten players in fantasy football last year were skill players.

Now take a look at the twentieth best quarterback in the league last year, Derek Carr, who averaged 13 points a game. He finished with 208 fantasy points last season, which would’ve made him the twenty-fourth best skill player in the NFL and would’ve finished ahead of Golden Tate, Lamar Miller, C.J. Anderson and Deandre Hopkins. If 13 points a game weren’t up to snuff, then Tony Romo would be your guy. He ended the season with 294 points and averaged 19 points a game and was the twelfth best quarterback last year.

Hopefully by now you see which way I’m heading. Quarterbacks, regardless of how good they are can produce points for your team, while you use those picks on other positions.

Most leagues only need one starting QB so unless you are in a 14 or 16 team league then you can wait to draft a quarterback. It’s easier said than done, because there are situations where you might feel the need to do it. Maybe there were five or six of them taken in a row and you fear being left behind, or maybe you hear whispers of “I can’t believe ____ is available.” during the draft. Don’t panic and make a pick in these situations. You are letting other people’s choices and preferences influence you and as the season progresses and players get hurt, you are going to wish you hadn’t passed on the extra depth. That being said, if Andrew Luck falls to you in the fourth round then you take him. One thing I’ve always stressed is value, and not passing it up. Andrew Luck at those rounds is incredible value and at that point you should have two or three elite players at those skill positions. Drafting the best quarterback in the league is much better than taking the likes of Alfred Morris or Andre Johnson.

On any given team there are a certain amount of players who see playing time: two running backs, three wide receivers, and one quarterback. That means that there are ninety-six receivers, sixty-four running backs, and thirty-two quarterbacks that can help your team in one way or the other. Here are some stats to illustrate positional scarcity and why you should wait on quarterbacks:

• The difference between the thirty-second quarterback last year, Drew Stanton, and the best quarterback last year was 270 points.

• The twelfth best quarterback would translate to the thirty-sixth wide receiver. That would be Mohamed Sanu who finished the season with 152 points. From the best wide receiver to Sanu, there is a drop-off of 202 points.
• At the running back position it would be the twenty-fourth player, which was Fred Jackson who finished with 150 points. From the best running back to Fred Jackson there is a drop-off of 179 points.

You are going to feel much better having four or five skill players who can be used any given week on your bench instead of the best quarterback in the league with Toby Gerhart as a backup or starter. That is the worst-case scenario. If your starters all stay healthy, then you can rest assured that other owners’ players are not. It is the perfect scenario to trade one of these guys, who you might be under-utilizing, to improve at the other positions. The depth also works in your favor when it comes to trades. The addition of a Chris Ivory or Alfred Morris to a trade proposal might be what convinces the other owner to say yes and your team isn’t any less competitive.

On draft day, wait on quarterbacks and use it to your advantage.

 

Tier 1:	Eddie Lacy	Adrian Peterson	Jeremy Hill
Tier 2:	Julio Jones	Jamaal Charles	Antonio Brown	Marshawn Lynch	DeMarco Murray	Dez Bryant	Matt Forte	C.J. Anderson	Rob Gronkowski
Tier 3:	Odell Beckham Jr	Justin Forsett	Calvin Johnson	Demaryius Thomas	Lamar Miller
Tier 4:	Randall Cobb	A.J. Green	Jonathan Stewart
Tier 5:	Andre Ellington	LeSean McCoy	Jordan Matthews	Mark Ingram	Frank Gore	Latavius Murray	Doug Martin	Christopher Ivory
Tier 6:	Brandin Cooks	Alshon Jeffery	DeAndre Hopkins	T.Y. Hilton	Mike Evans	Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 7:	Amari Cooper	Carlos Hyde	Alfred Morris	Davante Adams
Tier 8:	Jarvis Landry	Rashad Jennings	Melvin Gordon	Joseph Randle,	T.J. Yeldon	Keenan Allen	Julian Edelman	Andre Johnson	Ameer Abdullah,
Tier 9:	Jeremy Maclin	Steve Smith	Giovani Bernard	Isaiah Crowell,	Golden Tate	Greg Olsen	Vincent Jackson	DeAngelo Williams	Alfred Blue
Tier 10:	Allen Robinson	Tevin Coleman	Brandon Marshall	Sammy Watkins	DeSean Jackson	Joique Bell	Larry Fitzgerald	John Brown
Tier 11:	Jimmy Graham	Nelson Agholor	Anquan Boldin	Charles Johnson
Tier 12:	Shane Vereen	Martellus Bennett	Roddy White	Travis Kelce	Bishop Sankey	Mike Wallace	Danny Woodhead

The Panthers are in vast need of receiving talent now that their lead receiver Kelvin Benjamin is out for the season. Benjamin tore his ACL, leaving rookie Devin Funchess as Carolina’s main receiving threat and it’s a perfect storm for Greg Olsen to be a dominant tight end this year.

No one is going to deny Gronk as being the number one tight end, but you can expect Olsen to surpass Jimmy Graham and become the number 2 by the end of the season. Graham is going to see less yardage and targets in Seattle’s run first offense, while this year Olsen is going to be force-fed the ball. In the third preseason game Olsen was targeted by Cam Newton eight times in just the first half.

Last season Benjamin had 73 catches and a huge 146 targets. Targets lead to opportunities and opportunities lead to fantasy points. Those targets have to go somewhere and Olsen will be a main beneficiary of them. Funchess is a very raw player returning from an injury and with the little we have seen from him it looks like his hands could use some work. With Cam behind a weak offensive line and no other reliable targets Olsen will become his safety blanket.

During three of Cam Newton’s four seasons Olsen has been targeted over 100 times. The lack of a true receiving threat in Carolina could leave Olsen as the most targeted tight end in the league. His PPR value is real. You can treat Olsen as a wide receiver at the tight end position and know he will produce week to week. His floor is higher this year than other tight end’s ceilings and in all but one of his eight seasons he has scored at least 5 touchdowns, which can be expected to improve upon this year.

Currently going in the 5^th round of 12 team drafts, he is a great deal. He offers weekly advantage at the positions and a stress free “set and forget” option all season long.

 

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Sometimes rankings aren’t enough. Don’t have much time before your draft? Here’s a quick rundown for some of the later round TE picks in 2015:

The number one consensus tight end is clearly Gronk followed by Olsen, Grahm and Kelce, but after that the water gets murky.

Julius Thomas — No longer a part of the Bronco’s offense, Thomas will be catching passes from Blake Bortles this year. Last year, Bortles and the Jaguars ranked last in total points. You can already see where this is going, but Thomas gained most of his 2014 fantasy points from his 12 touchdowns that he reeled in from Peyton. The Jaguars only had 15 receiving touchdowns in 2014 and Thomas’ fantasy value will not only suffer from it, but he will also be out for the first 4 games with a finger injury. Even though he is talented there are too many factors pointing to a down season.

Zach Ertz — Chip Kelly loves Brent Celek and that is bad news for Ertz. Last season Celek played 70% of the Eagles snaps while Ertz was only in the mix 50% of the plays. It looks like Celek will continue to be the lead tight end in 2015 as Ertz is recovering from a groin injury and is questionable to even play in week one. He ranked 17^th among tight ends last year and is expected to fall into that range again.

Owen Daniels — It has been two years since Daniels has had a good fantasy season and he is only getting older. Yet this year might be an up one, since he will be receiving the ball from Peyton Manning. Although Daniels will have to share the field with Virgil Green, he has the potential for some big games. Don’t expect consistency from week to week, but he will make a splash from time to time throughout the season.

Delanie Walker — Last year he averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game and had a career high 890 receiving yards. He should have a clear upgrade at quarterback now that Marcus Mariota has taken the reigns. You can expect him to come close if not exceed his 2014 career marks.

Tyler Eifert — The reports from training camp have been great. Eifert should be able to get open plenty with the opponent’s defenses worrying about A.J. Green. He has the possibility to end the season with the second most targets on the team. He has TE1 upside and compared to many of the tight ends going ahead of him he is a great value pick late in the draft.

Larry Donnell — Donnell is being selected as the 25^th tight end option and while last season was a rollercoaster he was able to hand out a few big games. He finished the season as the 11^th best tight end and should out perform his ADP. Eli has never had a tight end out of the top 20 and with Victor Cruz still questionable, Donnell could become a more reliable option in the Giant’s offence.

Jordan Cameron — Cameron looks like a good pick, because of his talent and his move into a vastly superior offense. Two years ago he was a top 4 fantasy tight end and could do the same in 2015 if he stays healthy. It’s too bad that staying healthy is a questionable prospect for Cameron. He hasn’t played a full 16 games in all four of his years in the league. He has had three concussions in the last two years and has TE1 upside, but it comes at a high price for the risk associated with him.

Dwayne Allen — A touchdown-scoring machine Allen has scored touchdowns in 9 of the last 13 games he played. He is being drafted as a TE1, but know that touchdowns are a fluky thing. If the touchdowns dry up, so will his fantasy value. He is in a timeshare with Coby Fleener and won’t see enough targets to make him a TE1 without touchdowns. He is a decent pick if you believe the red zone looks will keep coming.

Heath Miller — Miller is turning 33 this year and his ceiling can’t compare to other tight ends. He has only had four touchdowns and broke 10 fantasy points only two times in the last two seasons. He should have another mediocre season, but don’t expect him to win your matchups week to week.

Sometimes rankings aren’t enough. Don’t have much time before your draft? Here’s a quick rundown of the WR2s for 2015:

DeAndre Hopkins – Hopkins has talent, but now that he is Houston’s number 1 wide receiver there are questions about his quarterback downgrade and the fact that he will be facing the top corners in the league. Draft him, but defenses will zone in on him until Arian Foster returns.

Brandon Cooks – The Saints are moving to a more run based offense and Brees likes to spread the ball around. He has looked great in preseason and there are not many WR options with so many injuries. He is worth the pick at his current ADP. He gets a small bump in leagues with points for return yards.

Jordan Matthews – He should be the lead wide receiver in the Eagles fast paced offense. They expect to score 30 points a game this year and with the way Bradford has played they look like they could do it. Draft without fear.

Emmanuel Sanders – Peyton seems to be declining and he is second to Demaryius Thomas. Draft him if he falls far enough, but know that he expects his own production to dip this year.

Andre Johnson – He used to be an elite option, but is now getting old. His move into a much more favorable offense should help his numbers though. Expect him to show that he isn’t out of the game just yet. Draft confident as a wide receiver 2.

Keenan Allen – He was inconsistent last year and may bounce back in 2015. He isn’t an exciting choice, but you could take him if your draft falls that way.

Amari Cooper – He is a rookie, but one that has shown great promise during he preseason. Oakland will be forced to throw from behind again this year and Crabtree shouldn’t steal too many targets. If you aren’t afraid of the rookie pick, at his ADP he will be a good WR2.

Brandon Marshall – After having a down season with the Bears he looks to bounce back this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to zone in on one guy and Marshall’s season could benefit from it. As long as he stays healthy and out of trouble he should make a fine wide receiver 2.

Julian Edelman – A low risk option, his production should increase once Brady returns. He will be a low-end WR2 with a bump in PPR.

Golden Tate – A talented player, he looked amazing in 2014 when Calvin went down, but Detroit’s offense can’t support both him and Calvin. If you can handcuff a wide receiver this is it. A decent WR2 who will be great if something happens to Calvin.

DeSean Jackson – He is a boom or bust player and looking at the Redskin’s offense he may have more bust games this season. The Redskins have said they want to feature Garcon more and signs point to a down season. Avoid if possible.

Sammy Watkins – He is a great receiver in a bad situation. In a run heavy offense led by Greg Roman there is too much downside and not enough up. Avoid and don’t draft.

Jeremy Maclin – The Chiefs haven’t been much for passing to wide receivers, but Maclin is a really good player and the preseason has showed the Chiefs aren’t afraid to mix up their offense. Others will be low on him, because of Alex Smith, but that just makes his price so much sweeter. An excellent WR 2.

Allen Robinson – There is a lot of buzz so far around him and he could be worthy of it. He will have plenty of targets as the Jags throw from behind, but they were the team to stream defenses against last year. Avoid and let someone else take the risk on this one.

Jarvis Landry– Do not touch in standard, but in PPR his floor will be very consistent for a WR2. In PPR he should be a miniature Antonio Brown with his floor being 50 yards on 6 receptions. He doesn’t have huge upside, but he is a solid play every week. If your team does return yards he is a top 10 WR and a steal at his ADP.

Vincent Jackson – Another boom or bust receiver, Jackson is getting older and will fall into a wide receiver 2 role behind Mike Evans. This year you can expect his numbers to become more consistent as his catches will come closer to the goal line. It’s possible that he has a fifth straight 1000 yd season and makes a great WR2.

Roddy White – His upside is limited. Roddy even expects the Falcons to pass less. The situation is similar to Golden Tate, with Julio around there isn’t enough room for two great receivers. His career is on the decline, but could still be a WR2. A risky pick, without that much upside.

Martais Bryant – He didn’t play on half the snaps last year and still scored 8 TDs. During the preseason he has destroyed in the Steelers high-powered offense. His role will be increased once he is back from his suspension. Huge upside and with his ADP dropped for being suspended he can be a great late round steal.