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The year of the Quarterback

qbsizedThe year of the Quarterback…or not.

The NFL is in a strange time where there are more good quarterbacks than not. The days of Schaub, Henne, Orton, Sanchez and Campbell are long gone and have been replaced by quarterbacks who can make good throws in a league where the ground and pound is being replaced by the air attack. Wide receivers are protected, the fullback position is being phased out, and offenses are striving to become faster as a whole. Half the quarterbacks in the league threw over 450 passes last year and RBs are getting less carries while more of their touches come via the passing game. Well you should probably take a good quarterback early right?

As counterintuitive as it might seem, you need to forget about quarterbacks on draft day. Most leagues only allow you to start one, so you are going to have some pretty good ones available to you even if you wait. It’s an important position in the NFL, so people think that translates to their importance in fantasy football. It’s not to say that there isn’t some overlap between the two. If you had Tom Brady during his fifty-touchdown season then you probably won your league’s championship, but that isn’t going to happen too often so you have to treat that as an outlier and look at quarterbacks as a whole.

Position scarcity is the name of the game and the quarterback position is the most abundant. If that doesn’t make sense then just think about the amount of roster spots you need to dedicate to skill positions. Assuming you are playing in a standard league then each owner has to start two running backs, two wide receivers and a flex. That is fifty or so players who will be drafted to start, and if every owner uses three or four of their bench spots to get backups, that number goes up to ninety.  That number can change, but the central idea does not, skill positions are a commodity.

The numbers I used are based on a league where receptions are worth half a point and quarterbacks only get four per touchdown. The top five players last year were Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Antonio Brown, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. If you expand the list to ten then you add Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Le’Veon Bell, Matt Ryan and Demarco Murray. Only three of the top ten players in fantasy football last year were skill players.

Now take a look at the twentieth best quarterback in the league last year, Derek Carr, who averaged 13 points a game. He finished with 208 fantasy points last season, which would’ve made him the twenty-fourth best skill player in the NFL and would’ve finished ahead of Golden Tate, Lamar Miller, C.J. Anderson and Deandre Hopkins. If 13 points a game weren’t up to snuff, then Tony Romo would be your guy. He ended the season with 294 points and averaged 19 points a game and was the twelfth best quarterback last year.

Hopefully by now you see which way I’m heading. Quarterbacks, regardless of how good they are can produce points for your team, while you use those picks on other positions.

Most leagues only need one starting QB so unless you are in a 14 or 16 team league then you can wait to draft a quarterback. It’s easier said than done, because there are situations where you might feel the need to do it. Maybe there were five or six of them taken in a row and you fear being left behind, or maybe you hear whispers of “I can’t believe ____ is available.” during the draft. Don’t panic and make a pick in these situations. You are letting other people’s choices and preferences influence you and as the season progresses and players get hurt, you are going to wish you hadn’t passed on the extra depth. That being said, if Andrew Luck falls to you in the fourth round then you take him. One thing I’ve always stressed is value, and not passing it up. Andrew Luck at those rounds is incredible value and at that point you should have two or three elite players at those skill positions. Drafting the best quarterback in the league is much better than taking the likes of Alfred Morris or Andre Johnson.

On any given team there are a certain amount of players who see playing time: two running backs, three wide receivers, and one quarterback. That means that there are ninety-six receivers, sixty-four running backs, and thirty-two quarterbacks that can help your team in one way or the other. Here are some stats to illustrate positional scarcity and why you should wait on quarterbacks:

  • The difference between the thirty-second quarterback last year, Drew Stanton, and the best quarterback last year was 270 points.
  • The twelfth best quarterback would translate to the thirty-sixth wide receiver. That would be Mohamed Sanu who finished the season with 152 points. From the best wide receiver to Sanu, there is a drop-off of 202 points.
  • At the running back position it would be the twenty-fourth player, which was Fred Jackson who finished with 150 points. From the best running back to Fred Jackson there is a drop-off of 179 points.

You are going to feel much better having four or five skill players who can be used any given week on your bench instead of the best quarterback in the league with Toby Gerhart as a backup or starter. That is the worst-case scenario. If your starters all stay healthy, then you can rest assured that other owners’ players are not. It is the perfect scenario to trade one of these guys, who you might be under-utilizing, to improve at the other positions. The depth also works in your favor when it comes to trades. The addition of a Chris Ivory or Alfred Morris to a trade proposal might be what convinces the other owner to say yes and your team isn’t any less competitive.

On draft day, wait on quarterbacks and use it to your advantage.

 

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Tips and Tricks for your Auction Draft

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For the last couple of  years I’ve been weaning myself off standard drafts and getting into auctions. I’ve found that they take luck out of the process and add in some more strategy. It’s not to say that auction drafts are the only way to play, I still participate in snake drafts and thoroughly enjoy them, but if you’re like me you’ll probably want more freedom and choices when it comes to drafting your team.

Auction-based drafts are very open-ended. Players don’t have to be nominated in a certain order, and for the most part, they aren’t drafted from best to worst. This means every player is available to you and you can create the team you want. Ironically enough, it’s biggest draw can be a deterrent for some. In a snake draft there’s no need to worry about your budget, the going rate for certain players, or keeping track of the amount of money other owners have left. If you’re new to the format, it can quickly become an overwhelming experience. Some think it is too much and would prefer the simplicity of a timer and making a pick.

If an auction draft is still something you want to try or something you want to get better at, here are some guidelines you can follow.

Use nominations to your advantage. Your goal in an auction draft should be to take as many owners as possible out of the running for the players you want. This isn’t going to happen early in the draft when everyone has all of their money, but it can make all the difference when you are filling out your bench. Having C.J. Spiller and Andre Johnson is better than Duke Johnson and John Brown. A good way to do this is by nominating players you don’t want, specifically defenses and kickers. Defenses can be streamed and kicker are a dime a dozen. The idea is to nominate the best players at those positions because even if no one else bids then it’s still a win for you. Either someone else bids more than $1 for a kicker or a defense, or you get the best players at that position for virtually nothing. This strategy can also be used with guys on your “do not draft” list. If you think Adrian Peterson will be a bust this year, nominate him and watch someone else spend $50+ on him. It’s one less owner bidding on the guys you want later on and that much less money left in his bank account. That being said, be careful when nominating these unwanted guys. Don’t make the initial bid too much and don’t nominate guys who are completely unknown. No one is going to waste their money on Kerwynn Williams and no one is going to one-up your starting bid of $10 for Tyrod Taylor. Nominate the guy you don’t want for $1 and move on.

Know when to get in and when to get out. There are a few definitions for the term cheat sheet: a list with values for every player, a list of players ranked from best to worst, and a list of players you are targeting or avoiding. My sheet is a combination of all three. I print one out from a website and I write what amount I’m willing to pay for each one, I especially do this for all the top-ranked players in the NFL. If I really like the player then the number I write next to his name will be higher than average, if it’s someone I don’t like at all it will be a number so low that I would be stupid to pass him up. In an auction draft you also have to know when to get out of a bidding war. At one point or another you and another owner will end up trying to outbid each other for the same player. When this happens you need to listen to your gut because if you think the price for someone is getting too high, then it probably is. If you’re going to go over by a dollar or two, especially when it’s a guy who you really want, then don’t be afraid to do it. That money can be spared and most people end up with a dollar or two at the end of the draft. The problem is when you overspend by $10+ and lose any chance at grabbing those high upside guys you want late in the draft.

Find a balance between value and need.  For one reason or another, player’s values will fluctuate throughout the draft. Maybe there was a stretch where only RBs were nominated, or no one likes the player who is on the board. The reasons don’t matter, but there will be plenty of players going for a lot less than market value. You then have to ask yourself whether you should make a bid and the answer depends on one of two questions. Is it early in the draft? Players who are going to be nominated early in the draft are most likely going to be top 20 guys at their positions. If someone is going for $20 or $30 less at this point then you’re going to want to make a bid regardless of who it is. They will be starters or at the very least good trade bait. The second question is, do you have the money and space? If you don’t then it’s ok to pass on a player. There will be 150+ players drafted so you won’t be the only owner who gets good value on a player and you won’t be the only owner with a good team. Don’t draft your 7th running back when you only have two WRs.

Bid early. This is something I’ve noticed in my drafts and falls in line with my previous point. The first players nominated in the draft, and in their respective positions, tend to be cheaper. There are two reasons why this happens. The first is that owners think they’ll be left without a significant amount of money early in the draft. Paying $30-$50 for Calvin Johnson isn’t a lot, but when you’re the only owner who doesn’t have $200 left, it can seem like a disadvantage. The second reason is that the market value hasn’t been set. No one knows if $40 is too much for a player when he’s the first player taken at that position. We fool ourselves into thinking that the $40 price point is too high and that the next guy will be cheaper, if not the same price. All you have to do is look at other drafts to know this is not the case and all you’ve done is talk yourself out of a top 5 guy at a great price.

Auction drafts aren’t dependent on a single strategy and will vary from league to league. My intention is to give you an advantage through the use of guidelines that aren’t specific to a certain format or league. Hopefully you can use these guidelines to create the team you want at a value you’re happy with.