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2015 was a great year for the Washington Redskins. They clinched the NFC East for the 2nd time in 5 years. Matt Jones on the other hand had a rocky season. Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed lead the offense through the air but Washingtons’ run game was a full on committee.

Matt Jones shared carries with lead back Alfred Morris throughout nearly the entire season. The Coaches seemed like they wanted to let Jones take over the lead but, every time they gave him a chance he would fumble it and the ball away. Fantasy owners of Redskins’ running backs were constantly hoping that one would become the clear leader and they would know who to start every Sunday.

So why is there so much hype for a player who finished the season under 500 yards with an abysmal average of 3.4 yards a carry? Its because the Committee approach looks to be a thing of the past for Washington. During the offseason Alfred Morris made his way to the cowboys leaving only 7th round draft pick Keith Marshall as a threat to Jones starting role.

The opportunity sure seems to be there for Jones in the 2016 season. The Redskins were #7 in rushing attempts last year and he looks to get nearly all of it. Physically he is a solid player coming in at 6’2, 231lb  and isn’t afraid of contact. He has a bruiser running style that would be great for goal line work and he isn’t bad at pass protection either.

So will the sophomore slump? Well, yes and no. I believe that Jones is sure to improve upon his 2015 season through opportunity alone, but as far as fantasy is concerned I have doubts that he out performs his ADP. Currently he is going 49th overall and as the 21st running back off the board.

Jones is a high risk and low reward kind of player. I normally preach that any one getting the main share of a teams work is someone to be coveted, but Jones has not shown he can do anything with the touches that he has gotten. During last season he lacked vision often missing holes and occasionally running into his own teammates. Combine this with the Redskins’ centers being some of the worst in the league and you will have broken plays all season long.

The one thing Jones had going for him in 2015 was his touchdowns, but even those are questionable this year. With their star TE Jordan Reed healthy and the Skins adding Josh Doctson at WR their passing game will be stronger than ever. Even though he missed a chunk of the season Reed finished as the #7 player targeted in the red zone. You can expect Reed and Doctson to be targeted heavily near the goalline, with every short fade being a dagger into Jones fantasy production.

At his price and situation Its safe to say that Jones will get enough work to put him into the low RB2 discussion but his ceiling will not be much higher than that. For me his risk level is too high for a player that has no track record on a team that is likely to regress from their 2015 season. He might kill it this season but to me all signs point to more of the same 2015 Matt Jones, just a lot more of him.

Going 40th over all in last year’s fantasy draft, Melvin Gordon was expected to have a breakout year. Coming out of Wisconsin the Chargers drafted him in the first round of the NFL draft. He had an incredible 4,915 yards, 49 touch downs, and 7.79 yards per carry during his 3 seasons in Madison. Gordon was to start as the lead back and predicted to be a superstar. But if you ask anyone who had him on their fantasy team, they can tell you nothing could have been farther from the truth.

Instead of the record numbers he set in college he ended his 14 game season with 833 total yards and 0 touchdowns. Yes, you read that right… 0 touchdowns. Each and every week owners hoped that it would be the one when he crossed the line and time and time again they were let down.

Just because of how bad his season was I am going to get to the question pretty quickly on this one. Will the sophomore slump? Hell no. How could he. I wont go as far as to say he will be the superstar that he was predicted to be but he would be hard pressed to preform worse then last year. Short of a season ending injury he will bounce back in 2016.

The real question is how much will he bounce back? To figure that out let’s look at what caused his downfall last year. Injuries, injuries, and more injuries. That one word can summarize the 2015 Chargers. Their O-line, receivers, and Gordon too all suffered some form of injury last season. Most of them year long affairs. By the end of the season the team was a shell of what it could have been. The injuries started at their O-Line, the Chargers only had one O-lineman start in all 16 games last season. They failed to consistently control the line of scrimmage and in turn Gordon found himself stuffed more often than not.

Next their passing game took a hit as multiple of their top receivers suffered injuries removing any threat from the air. Then there are the injuries Gordon suffered personally. He started the season with an ankle injury that limited him for multiple games, followed by a season ending knee injury against Miami. The team turned to Danny Woodhead as their only form of offense.

This year the Chargers Offense should look to bounce back in a big way. Their players have healed up, their line wont be a rotating door, and their passing attack will be even better with the addition of Travis Benjamin. All signs point to Gordon being the player he was predicted to be last year except for one big red flag. Gordon’s knee still isn’t fully healed and on top of that he had a micro fracture surgery in his foot during the off season. During videos of drills he has been seen favoring his other leg and certainly isn’t confident going all out. There is still plenty of time before the season starts but, no matter how good the rest of the team looks his health concerns along with his poor 2015 performance will keep his ADP down.

He is currently being drafted as running back 27 and 64th overall. With his ADP so low he has some substantial upside. In 2015 the coaches kept giving him the ball no matter how poorly he played, they haven’t made any moves to replace him, and have said he is “looking great during the conditioning part of camp.” They are still focused on making him a big part of the offense and as we know opportunity is everything in fantasy. As the Chargers’ main back a healthy Gordon has the potential for over 1,000 yards and certainly more than 0 touchdowns. While some people will shy away because of his past performance, keep an eye out closer to season start because at his ADP he will be a steal if he is healthy.

Todd Gurley had a breakout season during 2016. Recovering from a torn ACL during the offseason, it was hard to know how this rookie would return to the field. As he healed up, he sat out the first two weeks of the season. He was eased in during week 3 and in week 4 he took the league by storm. For the next 5 weeks Gurley averaged over 130 yards per game and ran in 4 touchdowns.

Quickly he became the Rams number one weapon looking fast, strong, and explosive on the field. They gave him their full workload right out of the gate averaging just under 20 carries per game throughout the season. It wasn’t until Week 10 when Gurley came back down to earth.

The Rams O-Line suffered some injuries and opposing defenses zoned in to Gurley as they could ignore St.Louis’ pathetic passing game. Constantly falling behind the Rams often had to abandon the run. Gurley’s average yards per carry and carries per game took took a significant drop. While he did still have a good game here or there the seed had been planted. Is the Rams offense so bad that it could dwarf all of Gurley’s talent?

The answer… certainly not. I think the worries surrounding Gurley can be easily dismissed. Not only has Gurley proved that he has what it takes to put the team on his back, but during the off season the Rams have made moves to improve their O-line. Gurley is going to be the teams running back and with their weak passing game they are going to run often. This year more than ever workload should factor into your decisions for running back. More and more teams are moving to a committee approach and the number of true work horses is getting smaller and smaller. Even if Gurley averages a bad 3.5 yards per carry he is liable to get well over 300 touches and clock in a 1000 yard season.

People will talk about how bad he was at the end of the year but how bad was he really? In the 13 games games Gurley played last year, he scored double digit fantasy points in 10 of them. In the games where he was given 10 or more carries, he scored double digit fantasy points 100% of the time.

Will his numbers slump? I don’t think so. I wont say that he will be the wrecking machine that he was at the start of the season but, his Sheer workload alone will give him a reliable floor, and its hard to imagine the Rams offense could get worse than last year. Gurely will fall somewhere in between his most dominate games and his weaker showings. Defenses will focus on him once again but he has the talent and opportunity to put up great numbers none the less. He is one of the safer running backs in the first round.

Powered By the Crunchinator: Fantasy rankings here aren’t based off of hive mind group consensus or gut feelings. They are instead generated by the Crunchinator. Built from the ground up its a powerful tool, comparing a multitude of statistics in its predictions. With each week the its accuracy will improve as more data is fed into it.

In 2015 an outrageous amount of running back injuries lead to many rookies getting starting spots that they wouldn’t normally have. David Johnson was one of those backs.

Early in the season he saw little work as a change of pace, passing down back but made ridiculously good use of the few chances that he did receive. Week 1 he took his lone catch 55 yards to the house for a touchdown. Week 2 he started the game off with a 108 yard return for a touchdown. Week 4 he brought in 4 receptions and 63 yards along with another touchdown.

He certainly passed the eye test but the Cardinal’s coach Bruce Arians is known for putting his seniority on the field. It wasn’t until later in the season that Duke got his time to take the teams full load when both his teammates, Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington, suffered injuries leaving him as the teams only option. Many rookies crack to the pressure of the NFL but Duke did not. He carried the ball for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns in his 5 starts down the stretch and took the cardinals into the post season.

Since his spectacular 2015 season his ADP has risen to incredible heights. Currently he is going 7th over all and is in the conversation as one of the first running backs off the board. Now is that a fair price for this second year back? Based on his numbers from Last year I would have to say yes. But a lot changes in a year. Lets take a quick into Johnson’s Sophomore Season.

Up until recently the biggest chip on Johnson’s shoulder has not been his talent or what team he is on, but how much work will he get during the 2016 season. Fellow teammate Chris Johnson put up great numbers last year and all off season whispers have been going around about a timeshare or even some bold predictions of Chris being the lead back for the Cards.

Lucky for us, that fog has begun to clear. Just today the Cardinals stated on their website “David Johnson is going to be the anchor to the backfield – of this there is little doubt”. Likely there will be a 60/30/10 split between the three Cardinals’ running backs with David getting near 20 carries a week.

He will get the work load and has the talent, so why should you pump the breaks on David Johnson. Well the Cardinals haven’t exactly been known for being a rushing juggernaut in recent years. Besides 2015 In the past 5 years as a team they have not finished a season better than 15th in fantasy points scored by running backs.  Don’t let this statistic be too big of a concern though. The cardinal offense in 2015 was amazing and looks to be good this year too. Just know that some regression can be expected from David.

So will David Slump? Im sure his numbers will slip some but he has the talent, he is on a great team and he looks to be a centerpiece of the offense. Even if he slips from his numbers last year he will be in the top 10 running backs at the end of the season. To know for sure if he will live up to his ADP I think it is best to look at who is going around him during the draft.

1. Le’Veon Bell:  His talent and position in the offense don’t need to be questioned. But after his injury last season there is always concern that he may not return as the player he once was. Even worse reinjury is also a concern coming into the 2016 season. Luckily Bell has a clear back up in DeAngelo Williams.
2. Todd Gurley: He has some great talent but his situation is suspect. Without some improvements to the Rams overall offense they will be fall behind and be forced to abandon the run often. After Gurley’s great start last year you could already see his numbers fall off as teams began to stack the box against him later in the season. The Rams offense has a pitiful passing game, without some more moves to improve it you can expect Gurley to see defenses full focus every game this season.
3. Adrian Peterson: The Athletic Freak of the NFL. Even as his age goes up he continues to be a force to be reckoned with. But it is only a matter of time until his age finally catches up with him. He is the running back with the least amount of red flags considering that he also has a solid handcuff in Jerick McKinnon.
4. Ezekiel Elliott: He has possibly the best situation out of all the mentioned players. His college talent was amazing and is behind the best O line in the NFL. Whats not to like? Just ask everyone who drafted Melvin Gordon in 2015. College to the NFL is not a direct parallel. On paper he looks to have a big year coming but without any experience his floor is bottomless.

Some player’s are bigger than others but this year there isn’t a single running back without at least one red flag. Out of the top 5 David not only has a comparable ceiling but is one of the safer picks. With many teams going straight to a committee approach the position scarcity at running back will be a real concern for the 2016 fantasy draft. David’s ADP is expensive but with so few reliable choices it is about right for his value.

The NFL Draft is over and the fantasy season is finally coming back. Here at The Fantasy Gridiron things are picking back up. Last year life got all busy and didn’t allow as much time for the site as I would have hoped. This year that is all about to change. Iv already taken to starting predraft articles and prepping for the upcoming 2016 season. Here are just some of the new things coming to the Gridiron in the upcoming year.

More Player Focused Articles

Trying to write about every singe thing in fantasy is way more work than I could possibly handle. For a short blub on a player or checking weekly injuries there is no way TFG can compete with larger sites. Thats why this year we are focusing on more in depth articles focused on specific players. Buy and Sell of the Week, Best Waiver Pick Up, and Predraft Profiles on stand out candidates to either pick or avoid in the upcoming year.

The Fantasy Lunch Box

Not everyone has time to do in depth research and keep up with everything happening in the NFL. For those who don’t have time to listen to an hour long podcast the Lunch Box will be just for you. A short 5-10 minute rundown of the most recent happenings, fluff excluded.

The Crunchinator

The most exciting addition to TFG. Predicting how many points a player will get is the heart and soul of fantasy. After getting fed up with the inaccuracies of other software I sat down to give it my own shot. Using past data the Crunchinator will quantify each players points adjusting not only for opposing defenses but a plethora of other statistics. This year it will be a large factor in weekly player rankings and with each week its accuracy should improve.

New Team Logos

Team names are huge in fantasy. With every championship won, there is a team’s name immortalizes in it’s league’s history. Last year our logos were a huge hit. This year we plan on making even more based off of readers favorite suggestions.

Should You Draft Frank Gore in 2016?

Anyone who had Frank the Tank on their fantasy team during 2015 will likely tell you to run for the hills. He was inconsistent week to week and did not break 100 yards rushing in any single game. He preformed so badly last year that his ADP (Average Draft Position) has fallen almost 50 places going into the 2016 season. He has gone from the 28th over all pick in 2015 (10th running back) to the 73rd overall pick  in 2016 (30th running back). While all of that may sound like Frank should finally be shelved to collect dust in the corner, I believe that he could be the steal of the Draft in 2016.

Frank Gore has been playing in the NFL since 2005. With 11 years as a NFL running back, in only his rookie season has he ever had less than 1,000 combined yards or finish not in the top 20 fantasy point scorers at his position. Even after his horrible season last year, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, he finished 11th in fantasy points. How did he do it? Two words… Bell Cow.

Frank Gore age 33 is one of the few remaining Bell Cows in the NFL. Every year it seems that more and more teams are moving away from having a single 3 down running back and running their offense with a committee approach. After a plethora of injuries and retirements in 2015 the disease that is committees is spreading faster than ever. Teams who once had a clear lead back now are nothing but muddy water. Langford in Chicago, Rawls in Seattle, and even David Johnson in Arizona ,who has a 1st round ADP may I remind you, all have talent lined up to take rushes away from them. Its easy to say that David is the best back in Arizona, but that is not going to stop the coaches from tagging in Chris Johnson to keep him fresh and healthy.

Now before I get anyone Gung Ho on Frank and taking him way to early I want to readdress that he is 33 years old, He has been playing for over 10 years, and he is not going to put up a 2,000 yard season. What he is going to do is get the ball each and every week, be on a rejuvenated offense, and be incredibly undervalued.

He will get the ball every week

Last year frank may have been 11th in fantasy points but he was #5 in attempts. The Colts have done virtually nothing to bring in anyone else to the position.Unless something changes before the season he looks to once again be given the teams full volume.

The Colts have a rejuvenated offense

The Colts offense was atrocious last year with the injury to Andrew Luck. Their whole offense suffered. Gore was met with 8 defenders in the box more often than not. With a top NFL quarterback at the helm, Frank and the rest of the team can look forward to a better offense and more fantasy points all around.

He is way under valued

This is where I want to really want to stress my point. Last year Gore finished as the 11th best fantasy running back. Currently Gore is being drafted as the 30th running back off the board. Just think about that. 30th… There are only 32 teams in the NFL. Last year as a team the Colts WERE 30th in fantasy points for running backs. Unless the Colts coaching changes their mind and brings someone else in, 2015 is Frank Gores floor. Gore has a round 1 workload while his value has dropped from the 3rd to the late 6th, early 7th round of 12 team leagues.

Like I said in the title Gore is just like an Antique. His age masks what he is worth. But for those willing to look past his wear and tear know that he can be refurbished into a starting RB for your team.