All posts by : Cory Kocurek

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 3: Pass on the Questionables

Pick the Periods, Not the Question Marks.

While drafting everyone is aiming to get value out of his or her picks. Being able to pin down a player’s value is incredibly important, though it is not always easy. There were many trades during the 2015 off-season and star players from last year have found new homes. Some of those players are going to thrive on their new teams, while other players will be stripped of their fantasy stardom.

An example of a likely to thrive player is Frank Gore. He looks to improve from his 2014 season, because he is on the best team that he has played with in ages. Last year, the San Francisco 49ers finished 30th in passing yards per game. With no throwing threat Gore had the box stacked against him more than any running back in the league. In his new Colts offense the defenses are going to be hard pressed to pressure him. Andrew Luck will be slinging the ball leaving Gore with plenty of room to work. Gore has been a top 20 running back consistently since 2005 and when fit into a consistent offense like the Colts you know what you can expect.

On the other end of the spectrum there is Julius Thomas. The former Denver tight end, Thomas was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars where his fantasy future is nothing but question marks. He put up great numbers with Peyton and the Broncos but his value is hard to judge now that he has moved to the worst offense in the league. We know he is an athletic player with plenty of skill and that his numbers are going to fall off this year, but the question is how much will they fall off? Deciding where to draft Thomas is based on plenty of speculation and while he may do amazing he could also crash and burn.

Avoiding players going to worse offensive teams is one thing to look for, but also players moving to a new type of offense. Jimmy Graham recently has moved from the New Orleans Saints to the Seattle Seahawks. He has moved from a passing first team to the land of the run first offense and with that move is some question marks. Graham is another example of a great athletic player and in the past one of the few elite tight ends. His past performances put him in an interesting place. He is a great player on a good offense, but how much will he get used? His price tag has him going as the second tight end off the board. A risky proposition for a player whose stats could vary so much from past years. Graham could continue to be an elite tight end but there are other players who have upside and safe floors. So why risk it? If you can ensure that your first 5 picks don’t crash and burn neither should your season. An unknown floor is a risk that can be mitigated. Let others take their risks on their early picks. You can take yours on fliers later in the draft.

Check out step 4 here!

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 2: Don’t Risk the IR

Any player can be injured and there is no such thing as a sure bet, but you can get pretty close and that is what you are going to do. If you don’t make it to the playoffs, then you won’t even get a chance for the ship. Having a player go down can put an end to your season. Having a star player out for even 2 or 3 games can be the difference between who goes all the way.

Sticking with the “your first pick can’t win you the season, but it can certainly lose it,” motto we’re going to mitigate risk with our early picks and press our luck later in the draft. While the “safe” fantasy picks don’t guarantee a win, you only have to be above the average to make it to the playoffs. There are some players with questionable track records and when your pick comes between one of them and another it could be the difference between floating and swimming.

An example that has already played out this year is Arian Foster. He is the definition of a player who is high-risk high-reward. Soft tissue injuries plagued him all last season and for the third season in a row he was entering as one of the highest injury risk players. Foster is almost guaranteed to miss some games each season and while he could potentially be running back #1 for the season, so can many more safe bets around his ADP.

A shining example of injury avoidance, Marshawn Lynch has missed one game due to back pain in the last 5 seasons. Outside of that he has managed the pain and played at an elite level. There is no reason to think that this is the year he falls apart. Baring the fact that Foster was injured during training camp the two had similar price tags, ceilings and floors, but Lynch has far less chance to miss games.

Another route people take is handcuffing. Handcuffing is grabbing a player and their backup in case they get injured. While this strategy mitigates risk, it also costs you a bench spot for your entire season and it is not advised in small bench leagues. If you are going this route make sure that your player backup is worth holding. A prime example is Jamal Charles and Knile Davis. Charles is a consistent running back with a true handcuff. In 2014 every game that Knile got double-digit attempts he put up double-digit points.

No one wants players to get hurt, but it is inevitable that they do and when they do no mater which route you chose by letting your league mates take the injury risk you are sure to win a few weeks with their starters out.

Check out step 3 here!

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 1: Don’t Draft Rookies!

While not a rookie, Odell Beckham Junior is a perfect example. He might be a tempting first round pick with his stellar performance last year. After returning from his hamstring injury he averaged 17 fantasy points per game during the 2014 season and won the rookie of the year award. Now while that sounds sweet to some, it’s nothing but red flags to veteran drafters. There is just no reason to draft him or any unproven players in the early rounds. There is already enough proven talent on the board that the risk isn’t necessary.

At ADP 13 he is being taken in the second even first round, but look who’s around him. There is an old adage that says, “your first pick can’t win you the season, but it can certainly lose it,” and Odell is one of those players. With a short track record there is no way to tell if he will keep performing at an elite level or if there is a sophomore slump in the future. Both Calvin Johnson (ADP 15) and Jordy Nelson (ADP 19) are set to go after him in the 2015 draft. Both have been elite receivers for years in a row on good offenses with proven records.

Last years freshmen receiving class may have been the best in history and this years running backs have some of the most promise in years, but for everyone that becomes a Mike Evans there is another who doesn’t live up to the hype. In fact most of the breakout players from 2014 were drafted late or even went undrafted. Let the other owners in your league take the risks in the early rounds. Yes, that rookie might be a top 5 receiver but in the early rounds so is everyone else.

Check out step 2 here!

Not drafting for your own league is the most fatal mistake a fantasy owner can make. Now what does that mean?

Don’t take “expert” opinions as law. A quick look around the internet will show thousands of results saying to wait on quarterback, but not every league waits till the 10th round to draft quarterbacks and if yours doesn’t neither should you.

When searching for draft advice take into account who your fellow league-mates are. If you are in a family league where everyone has a quarterback and a backup by the 8th round, then don’t wait until the 10th round for your first. It sounds simple, but if you take a look at mock drafts from expert leagues compared to the general public. There are a few outlying trends to watch for.

Looking at one of CBS Sports experts mock drafts as an example. In the expert league there were only two quarterbacks off the board in the first 3 rounds. That is right, 3 rounds. Andrew Luck fell into the third and early picks were filled with running backs. It was not until the 9th round that Ben Rothlisberger was taken, followed by most other teams taking their first quarterback in the 10th round.

In real life football the quarterback is the most important player on the field and in family leagues this mindset can often translate directly into the fantasy draft. As an example draft, Andrew Luck is the second overall pick and backups start getting taken in the 8th. With your draft, remember to be flexible and adjust to those around you. Since most experts have the same thoughts on what positions are valuable their strategies work for their leagues, but waiting two more rounds in a family league would put your starting quarterback as the 15 or 16th off the board and a significant week-to-week disadvantage.

Quarterbacks are just an example though. If your home team is the Packers and your league is filled with raving fans, then they might draft them earlier. If your League has rules that value defenses more, then take it into account when looking for draft advice. In the end, make sure to take a look around at your league mates and make your opinions based on theirs.