With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.
Step 3: Pass on the Questionables
Pick the Periods, Not the Question Marks.
While drafting everyone is aiming to get value out of his or her picks. Being able to pin down a player’s value is incredibly important, though it is not always easy. There were many trades during the 2015 off-season and star players from last year have found new homes. Some of those players are going to thrive on their new teams, while other players will be stripped of their fantasy stardom.
An example of a likely to thrive player is Frank Gore. He looks to improve from his 2014 season, because he is on the best team that he has played with in ages. Last year, the San Francisco 49ers finished 30th in passing yards per game. With no throwing threat Gore had the box stacked against him more than any running back in the league. In his new Colts offense the defenses are going to be hard pressed to pressure him. Andrew Luck will be slinging the ball leaving Gore with plenty of room to work. Gore has been a top 20 running back consistently since 2005 and when fit into a consistent offense like the Colts you know what you can expect.
On the other end of the spectrum there is Julius Thomas. The former Denver tight end, Thomas was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars where his fantasy future is nothing but question marks. He put up great numbers with Peyton and the Broncos but his value is hard to judge now that he has moved to the worst offense in the league. We know he is an athletic player with plenty of skill and that his numbers are going to fall off this year, but the question is how much will they fall off? Deciding where to draft Thomas is based on plenty of speculation and while he may do amazing he could also crash and burn.
Avoiding players going to worse offensive teams is one thing to look for, but also players moving to a new type of offense. Jimmy Graham recently has moved from the New Orleans Saints to the Seattle Seahawks. He has moved from a passing first team to the land of the run first offense and with that move is some question marks. Graham is another example of a great athletic player and in the past one of the few elite tight ends. His past performances put him in an interesting place. He is a great player on a good offense, but how much will he get used? His price tag has him going as the second tight end off the board. A risky proposition for a player whose stats could vary so much from past years. Graham could continue to be an elite tight end but there are other players who have upside and safe floors. So why risk it? If you can ensure that your first 5 picks don’t crash and burn neither should your season. An unknown floor is a risk that can be mitigated. Let others take their risks on their early picks. You can take yours on fliers later in the draft.