The year of the Quarterback…or not.
The NFL is in a strange time where there are more good quarterbacks than not. The days of Schaub, Henne, Orton, Sanchez and Campbell are long gone and have been replaced by quarterbacks who can make good throws in a league where the ground and pound is being replaced by the air attack. Wide receivers are protected, the fullback position is being phased out, and offenses are striving to become faster as a whole. Half the quarterbacks in the league threw over 450 passes last year and RBs are getting less carries while more of their touches come via the passing game. Well you should probably take a good quarterback early right?
As counterintuitive as it might seem, you need to forget about quarterbacks on draft day. Most leagues only allow you to start one, so you are going to have some pretty good ones available to you even if you wait. It’s an important position in the NFL, so people think that translates to their importance in fantasy football. It’s not to say that there isn’t some overlap between the two. If you had Tom Brady during his fifty-touchdown season then you probably won your league’s championship, but that isn’t going to happen too often so you have to treat that as an outlier and look at quarterbacks as a whole.
Position scarcity is the name of the game and the quarterback position is the most abundant. If that doesn’t make sense then just think about the amount of roster spots you need to dedicate to skill positions. Assuming you are playing in a standard league then each owner has to start two running backs, two wide receivers and a flex. That is fifty or so players who will be drafted to start, and if every owner uses three or four of their bench spots to get backups, that number goes up to ninety. That number can change, but the central idea does not, skill positions are a commodity.
The numbers I used are based on a league where receptions are worth half a point and quarterbacks only get four per touchdown. The top five players last year were Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Antonio Brown, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. If you expand the list to ten then you add Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Le’Veon Bell, Matt Ryan and Demarco Murray. Only three of the top ten players in fantasy football last year were skill players.
Now take a look at the twentieth best quarterback in the league last year, Derek Carr, who averaged 13 points a game. He finished with 208 fantasy points last season, which would’ve made him the twenty-fourth best skill player in the NFL and would’ve finished ahead of Golden Tate, Lamar Miller, C.J. Anderson and Deandre Hopkins. If 13 points a game weren’t up to snuff, then Tony Romo would be your guy. He ended the season with 294 points and averaged 19 points a game and was the twelfth best quarterback last year.
Hopefully by now you see which way I’m heading. Quarterbacks, regardless of how good they are can produce points for your team, while you use those picks on other positions.
Most leagues only need one starting QB so unless you are in a 14 or 16 team league then you can wait to draft a quarterback. It’s easier said than done, because there are situations where you might feel the need to do it. Maybe there were five or six of them taken in a row and you fear being left behind, or maybe you hear whispers of “I can’t believe ____ is available.” during the draft. Don’t panic and make a pick in these situations. You are letting other people’s choices and preferences influence you and as the season progresses and players get hurt, you are going to wish you hadn’t passed on the extra depth. That being said, if Andrew Luck falls to you in the fourth round then you take him. One thing I’ve always stressed is value, and not passing it up. Andrew Luck at those rounds is incredible value and at that point you should have two or three elite players at those skill positions. Drafting the best quarterback in the league is much better than taking the likes of Alfred Morris or Andre Johnson.
On any given team there are a certain amount of players who see playing time: two running backs, three wide receivers, and one quarterback. That means that there are ninety-six receivers, sixty-four running backs, and thirty-two quarterbacks that can help your team in one way or the other. Here are some stats to illustrate positional scarcity and why you should wait on quarterbacks:
- The difference between the thirty-second quarterback last year, Drew Stanton, and the best quarterback last year was 270 points.
- The twelfth best quarterback would translate to the thirty-sixth wide receiver. That would be Mohamed Sanu who finished the season with 152 points. From the best wide receiver to Sanu, there is a drop-off of 202 points.
- At the running back position it would be the twenty-fourth player, which was Fred Jackson who finished with 150 points. From the best running back to Fred Jackson there is a drop-off of 179 points.
You are going to feel much better having four or five skill players who can be used any given week on your bench instead of the best quarterback in the league with Toby Gerhart as a backup or starter. That is the worst-case scenario. If your starters all stay healthy, then you can rest assured that other owners’ players are not. It is the perfect scenario to trade one of these guys, who you might be under-utilizing, to improve at the other positions. The depth also works in your favor when it comes to trades. The addition of a Chris Ivory or Alfred Morris to a trade proposal might be what convinces the other owner to say yes and your team isn’t any less competitive.
On draft day, wait on quarterbacks and use it to your advantage.