5 Steps of Risk Management: Don’t Risk the IR

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With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 2: Don’t Risk the IR

Any player can be injured and there is no such thing as a sure bet, but you can get pretty close and that is what you are going to do. If you don’t make it to the playoffs, then you won’t even get a chance for the ship. Having a player go down can put an end to your season. Having a star player out for even 2 or 3 games can be the difference between who goes all the way.

Sticking with the “your first pick can’t win you the season, but it can certainly lose it,” motto we’re going to mitigate risk with our early picks and press our luck later in the draft. While the “safe” fantasy picks don’t guarantee a win, you only have to be above the average to make it to the playoffs. There are some players with questionable track records and when your pick comes between one of them and another it could be the difference between floating and swimming.

An example that has already played out this year is Arian Foster. He is the definition of a player who is high-risk high-reward. Soft tissue injuries plagued him all last season and for the third season in a row he was entering as one of the highest injury risk players. Foster is almost guaranteed to miss some games each season and while he could potentially be running back #1 for the season, so can many more safe bets around his ADP.

2015 NFL Groin Foster tore his groin muscle off the bone in his first padded practice. He needed surgery and was placed on IR/designated for return
2014 NFL Groin Foster pulled his groin in week 9. He missed 2 games as a result
2014 NFL Leg Foster injured his hamstring in the first week of preseason camp and has been sidelined for the last week
2014 NFL Leg Foster pulled his hamstring in the first week of preseason training camp and sat out for most of the sessions
2014 NFL Leg Foster pulled his hamstring in week 2 and missed the following game
2013 NFL Calf Foster suffered a calf strain in the summer and missed OTAs and the first few weeks of camp
2013 NFL Back In week 9 Foster left after the first play of the game with a herniated disc in his lumbar region on his back. He was placed on IR and underwent surgery a few days later
2012 NFL Chest Foster was pulled out of a game against the Vikings after suffering from heart arrythmia. He was able to continue playing the following week
2011 NFL Leg Foster tore his hamstring in a preseason game against the 49ers and missed 3 games this season. He then left the game against Miami after re-aggravating it.
2010 NFL Knee Arthroscopic knee injury after tearing his right Meniscus during practice.
2007 College Knee Underwent arthroscopic knee surgery for a torn left meniscus.
2006 College Ankle Foster was hampered by a nagging ankle injury vs. Florida Gators and missed 3 college games
2006 College Ankle Foster sprained his left ankle and required surgery. This plus a case of the fumbles the prior year cost his draft stock severely
2005 College Shoulder Underwent left shoulder surgery after dislocating an A/C joint

A shining example of injury avoidance, Marshawn Lynch has missed one game due to back pain in the last 5 seasons. Outside of that he has managed the pain and played at an elite level. There is no reason to think that this is the year he falls apart. Baring the fact that Foster was injured during training camp the two had similar price tags, ceilings and floors, but Lynch has far less chance to miss games.

Another route people take is handcuffing. Handcuffing is grabbing a player and their backup in case they get injured. While this strategy mitigates risk, it also costs you a bench spot for your entire season and it is not advised in small bench leagues. If you are going this route make sure that your player backup is worth holding. A prime example is Jamal Charles and Knile Davis. Charles is a consistent running back with a true handcuff. In 2014 every game that Knile got double-digit attempts he put up double-digit points.

No one wants players to get hurt, but it is inevitable that they do and when they do no mater which route you chose by letting your league mates take the injury risk you are sure to win a few weeks with their starters out.

Check out step 3 here!

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