With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.
Step 1: Don’t Draft Rookies!
While not a rookie, Odell Beckham Junior is a perfect example. He might be a tempting first round pick with his stellar performance last year. After returning from his hamstring injury he averaged 17 fantasy points per game during the 2014 season and won the rookie of the year award. Now while that sounds sweet to some, it’s nothing but red flags to veteran drafters. There is just no reason to draft him or any unproven players in the early rounds. There is already enough proven talent on the board that the risk isn’t necessary.
At ADP 13 he is being taken in the second even first round, but look who’s around him. There is an old adage that says, “your first pick can’t win you the season, but it can certainly lose it,” and Odell is one of those players. With a short track record there is no way to tell if he will keep performing at an elite level or if there is a sophomore slump in the future. Both Calvin Johnson (ADP 15) and Jordy Nelson (ADP 19) are set to go after him in the 2015 draft. Both have been elite receivers for years in a row on good offenses with proven records.
Last years freshmen receiving class may have been the best in history and this years running backs have some of the most promise in years, but for everyone that becomes a Mike Evans there is another who doesn’t live up to the hype. In fact most of the breakout players from 2014 were drafted late or even went undrafted. Let the other owners in your league take the risks in the early rounds. Yes, that rookie might be a top 5 receiver but in the early rounds so is everyone else.