In 2015 an outrageous amount of running back injuries lead to many rookies getting starting spots that they wouldn’t normally have. David Johnson was one of those backs.
Early in the season he saw little work as a change of pace, passing down back but made ridiculously good use of the few chances that he did receive. Week 1 he took his lone catch 55 yards to the house for a touchdown. Week 2 he started the game off with a 108 yard return for a touchdown. Week 4 he brought in 4 receptions and 63 yards along with another touchdown.
He certainly passed the eye test but the Cardinal’s coach Bruce Arians is known for putting his seniority on the field. It wasn’t until later in the season that Duke got his time to take the teams full load when both his teammates, Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington, suffered injuries leaving him as the teams only option. Many rookies crack to the pressure of the NFL but Duke did not. He carried the ball for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns in his 5 starts down the stretch and took the cardinals into the post season.
Since his spectacular 2015 season his ADP has risen to incredible heights. Currently he is going 7th over all and is in the conversation as one of the first running backs off the board. Now is that a fair price for this second year back? Based on his numbers from Last year I would have to say yes. But a lot changes in a year. Lets take a quick into Johnson’s Sophomore Season.
Up until recently the biggest chip on Johnson’s shoulder has not been his talent or what team he is on, but how much work will he get during the 2016 season. Fellow teammate Chris Johnson put up great numbers last year and all off season whispers have been going around about a timeshare or even some bold predictions of Chris being the lead back for the Cards.
Lucky for us, that fog has begun to clear. Just today the Cardinals stated on their website “David Johnson is going to be the anchor to the backfield – of this there is little doubt”. Likely there will be a 60/30/10 split between the three Cardinals’ running backs with David getting near 20 carries a week.
He will get the work load and has the talent, so why should you pump the breaks on David Johnson. Well the Cardinals haven’t exactly been known for being a rushing juggernaut in recent years. Besides 2015 In the past 5 years as a team they have not finished a season better than 15th in fantasy points scored by running backs. Don’t let this statistic be too big of a concern though. The cardinal offense in 2015 was amazing and looks to be good this year too. Just know that some regression can be expected from David.
So will David Slump? Im sure his numbers will slip some but he has the talent, he is on a great team and he looks to be a centerpiece of the offense. Even if he slips from his numbers last year he will be in the top 10 running backs at the end of the season. To know for sure if he will live up to his ADP I think it is best to look at who is going around him during the draft.
- Le’Veon Bell: His talent and position in the offense don’t need to be questioned. But after his injury last season there is always concern that he may not return as the player he once was. Even worse reinjury is also a concern coming into the 2016 season. Luckily Bell has a clear back up in DeAngelo Williams.
- Todd Gurley: He has some great talent but his situation is suspect. Without some improvements to the Rams overall offense they will be fall behind and be forced to abandon the run often. After Gurley’s great start last year you could already see his numbers fall off as teams began to stack the box against him later in the season. The Rams offense has a pitiful passing game, without some more moves to improve it you can expect Gurley to see defenses full focus every game this season.
- Adrian Peterson: The Athletic Freak of the NFL. Even as his age goes up he continues to be a force to be reckoned with. But it is only a matter of time until his age finally catches up with him. He is the running back with the least amount of red flags considering that he also has a solid handcuff in Jerick McKinnon.
- Ezekiel Elliott: He has possibly the best situation out of all the mentioned players. His college talent was amazing and is behind the best O line in the NFL. Whats not to like? Just ask everyone who drafted Melvin Gordon in 2015. College to the NFL is not a direct parallel. On paper he looks to have a big year coming but without any experience his floor is bottomless.
Some player’s are bigger than others but this year there isn’t a single running back without at least one red flag. Out of the top 5 David not only has a comparable ceiling but is one of the safer picks. With many teams going straight to a committee approach the position scarcity at running back will be a real concern for the 2016 fantasy draft. David’s ADP is expensive but with so few reliable choices it is about right for his value.