friends

Don’t draft In July!

friends

DON’T DRAFT DURING JULY! Frankly don’t draft during August either. Because of recent news I felt obligated to make this PSA. As the NFL season nears its easy to get caught up in fantasy but if your draft is this early you should go to all of your league mates right now and change it as close to Week 1 as possible.

I get that the first step to having your leagues draft is making sure that everyone is available. It can be hard to find a day when you all have a matching schedule, but drafting too soon could turn a fun fantasy season into 16 weeks of misery for an unlucky few.

Lets face it fantasy football is already incredibly luck dependent. Every year there are injuries, surprise roster changes, and other things completely out of our control. But what if they didn’t have to be?

In 2012 Matt Flynn had just signed a 3 year contract with the Seahawks and was predicted to be the starting QB, but as the start of the season rolled around, the Seahawks named Russell Wilson their starter and Flynn sat bench all year.

In 2014 Jordy Nelson of the Green Bay Packers, was the #2 wide receiver in fantasy. All signs said he was primed for a big 2015 season. So how did his season go? It didn’t… Nelson was being drafted as a WR1 all the way up until the preseason games where he tore his ACL against the Steelers. He never touched the field during 2015.

In 2016, today actually, Steeler’s running back Le’veon Bell was being drafted as the possibly the #1 running back in 2016. So what has changed in the last 24 hours? This morning it was announced that Bell has been given a four game suspension for missing a drug test.

Each one of these events wasn’t predictable but their effect on your league was preventable. Those of you who are drafting today are drafting blind. I present you with an example. There are two Leagues, league A drafts the last week of August and league B drafted yesterday.

In the next few month there will be training camps, preseason games, and plenty of coach speak for league A to get excited about. They will continue to refine their draft strategies and who are their favorite players. Come draft day every one picks their players and is excited, week one is right around the corner.

In league B things are a bit different. Teams have been picked but, kickoff is still 2 months away. The exciting news isn’t so exciting anymore. Players emerge from training camp and injuries happen, but all league B can do hope that it doesn’t hurt their team. Finally week one rolls around, half the league is ecstatic and can’t wait for the season. That 8th round handcuff they drafted is already the starter and they are sure to win this year. The other half the league is already distancing themselves from fantasy. Their 1st round pick was virtually forfeited and unless they get really lucky they will have to wait until 2017 for a chance to win.

A little dramatic I know, but its not far from the truth. League A gets a whole extra 2 months of fantasy fun as they craft their plans, while league B has people depressed before the season even starts.

If you are one of those leagues who does their draft early do your selves a favor this year and put it off as long as possible. The draft is one of the best parts of fantasy. You and your friends all putting your collective football knowledge to the test. Round after round picking the players that you know are going to kill it this year. The only problem is that football knowledge kinda stops in the offseason. Sure there is the NFL Draft and trades to take into account, but sometime between the summer pool parties and when the kids go back to school is when the magic happens. The drought ends and a flood of news comes from training camps. Players are hyped, sleepers are found and the smack talk begins.

 

Trading

Team Managing for Dummies: Trading

Trading

The preseason games are out of the way, the regular season has begun and its time to look at your team after the draft. Maybe you tore it up and have your dream team or panicked and everything fell apart, but no matter which players you drafted they are yours and you are going to have to make the most of them. The draft is only a small part of what determines the seasons out come. Fantasy football isn’t a set and forget game, how you manage your team will determine if you take it all or crash and burn.

Replacing your injured players and searching for great ones off of the waiver are child’s play compared to trading. First and for most you need to know what a player is worth. You need to know your league rules. All of the time people ask should I trade X for Y or similar fantasy advice but with out context of their league it is impossible to say. If you are in a PPR league that gives points for return yards then your wide receiver that does kick off and punt returns should be coveted like gold. Is it a 2QB league? If so then all of a sudden the value of QB 11-20 is ten times higher. If you are going to improve your team by trading make sure you know what your currency is worth.

To make a good trade the first step is to analyze your team and decide where it is weak and what position you want to improve. Once you have decided you can search you opponent’s teams for players that you would want to fill that position. This is where the three types of trades come in.

The first is a trade for positional strength. You leverage your depth at a position to trade for another. An example is that you are weak at running back but strong at wide receiver. You would find a team who is Weak at wide receiver and strong at running back and make a trade to improve both teams. Usually these trades involve bench players that when swapped would be a starter on the other players team. These types of trades are great to be apart of and making multiple of them over a season can give you the edge over most of the league. Think of it like this if you made a trade like this with a third of the member in a 10 team league, your team would have gotten better 3 times while each of theirs only got better once.

The second type of trade it trading your depth for strength. These trades are usually 2 for 1 or 3 for 2 trades where one team trades many of their benched players for one of the other teams starters. Trades like this can happen for many reasons. Injuries leave team A with no good running backs and the owner has no replacements. So they trade their Stud Receiver to team B for a downgrade and two start able running backs. Team A’s weekly points likely improve or at least become far more consistent while team B trades away their extra players to improve their starting line up. These trades can be a great late in the season when losing owners need to shake things up if they have hope to make the playoffs. You can hopefully trade away your depth to them for studs that will get you through the playoff push.

The last trade type is less important than the first two. Its to fill an immediate need. This trade happens to resolve temporary problems a team has by trading for a player they don’t feel good about starting for the rest of the season. These trades are almost only bench players and don’t truly improve either team. An example is that two teams have player that could fill in for the others bye weeks and it benefits them both teams to trade players that wouldn’t be played beside during a bye week.

Keeping an eye out for good trades is what separates the great fantasy owners from the good. So remember to look not only for where your team is weak, but where your opponents are too.

ballsized

Team Managing for Dummies: The Waver wire

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The preseason games are out of the way, the regular season has begun and its time to look at your team after the draft. Maybe you tore it up and have your dream team or panicked and everything fell apart, but no matter which players you drafted they are yours and you are going to have to make the most of them. The draft is only a small part of what determines the seasons out come. Fantasy football isn’t a set and forget game, how you manage your team will determine if you take it all or crash and burn.

The Waver Wire

It doesn’t matter if your like your team after the draft or not. Either way, you will be looking to the waver wire to improve your team and your chances of a championship.

All of the undrafted fantasy players will be placed in a pool of free agents that you can add to your roster. This will be the first place you look when you have an injured or under performing player, but even if you aren’t looking for replacement players it is still a key to a successful season.

Every year there are players who don’t get drafted and go on to dominate the league. Players break out for a plethora of reasons. A backup takes over the lead role, a good player comes back from injury. Maybe a trade happens that puts a player on a more favorable team. No matter what the case, it will happen. If you can find and acquire these players before your opponents you gain a distinct disadvantage during the season.

To do so you are going to need to do research and focus your attention on future weeks. Research includes reading articles like the ones found on the TheFantasyGridiron, watching your favorite sports news station and checking NFL Injury reports. If you hear word about a second stringer getting more reps at practice or a lead running backs hamstring acting up, it could be time to drop your weakest player and pick up a potential diamond in the rough.

Some example of 2015 gems were the Justin Forsette in the Ravens back field. After Ray Rice was removed from the team due to off field conduct it became a Running back by committee in Baltimore. There were three players that could have stepped up to take the lead role and it was weeks until Forsett showed that it would be him. If you waited until he was the obvious front runner you would have to fight with the rest of the league for him, but if you scooped him up early you got a top 10 running back for free.

The same goes for Odell Beckham Jr. he was a rookie injured for half the season and went undrafted in most leagues. Victor Cruz was injured and when OBJ came back he was immediately the Giants WR1. Many people scooped him up a week or two before he was expected to return and they rode him all the way to the championship.

You are looking for changes in a teams starting role. When getting to start players will get much more play time and their fantasy production will increase. Not every player that gets a starting job will become a breakout success, but that’s ok. All it cost you is a bench space for a week or two. The opportunity cost for a missed swing is nothing compared to a hitting a homer out of the park. This is especially true in auction leagues where grabbing a player a week earlier could be the difference of costing $1 and a small fortune.

Whatever your teams situation is make sure to check the waiver every week. It will be your go to for bye week, injury replacements, and that break out star.

Injuries-and-Byes

Team Managing for Dummies: Injuries and Byes

Injuries-and-Byes

The preseason games are out of the way, the regular season has begun and its time to look at your team after the draft. Maybe you tore it up and have your dream team or panicked and everything fell apart, but no matter which players you drafted they are yours and you are going to have to make the most of them. The draft is only a small part of what determines the seasons out come. Fantasy football isn’t a set and forget game, how you manage your team will determine if you take it all or crash and burn.

Injuries and Byes

Injuries and byes are the simplest part of managing your team but its’ importance can’t be overstated. Injuries happen in the NFL and there is no way to avoid them. Part of what makes fantasy football so challenging is when your best player goes down for the season and you have to find a way to replace him. Luckily there are ways you can prepare for the worst.

When a player is injured for the season you will need to drop them from your roster and fill their position with someone off of your bench, but not all injuries are a season ending affair, you will need to follow player injury reports to know when your hurt players will return or how long they will be out. Most websites and apps will do this automatically for you by placing a probable, questionable or doubtful beside the players name on your roster. Use this as a starting point, but make sure you check in before their game starts for any last minute changes.

For games early in the weekend you can check the injury reports and the pregame news right before kickoff and sub in a player from your bench if needed, but when the player in question is playing a late game on Sunday you might not know until right before game time if he will be on the field. By then most of your bench will be locked from playing in earlier games and you likely will not have anyone to take their place. In this situation it may be better to play one of your benched players during an earlier game to avoid getting stuck with a 0.

While not every player gets injured there is a week each year that you can guarantee that a player won’t put up any points, their bye week. Each NFL team has a week that their players have off so make sure to look ahead and plan your bench accordingly. Make sure you have a backup player to fill your starting positions while your studs are resting.

Injuries and Byes are an easy concept to grasp, but one that will lose your season if you don’t keep an eye on them.

 

auction

Tips and Tricks for your Auction Draft

auction

For the last couple of  years I’ve been weaning myself off standard drafts and getting into auctions. I’ve found that they take luck out of the process and add in some more strategy. It’s not to say that auction drafts are the only way to play, I still participate in snake drafts and thoroughly enjoy them, but if you’re like me you’ll probably want more freedom and choices when it comes to drafting your team.

Auction-based drafts are very open-ended. Players don’t have to be nominated in a certain order, and for the most part, they aren’t drafted from best to worst. This means every player is available to you and you can create the team you want. Ironically enough, it’s biggest draw can be a deterrent for some. In a snake draft there’s no need to worry about your budget, the going rate for certain players, or keeping track of the amount of money other owners have left. If you’re new to the format, it can quickly become an overwhelming experience. Some think it is too much and would prefer the simplicity of a timer and making a pick.

If an auction draft is still something you want to try or something you want to get better at, here are some guidelines you can follow.

Use nominations to your advantage. Your goal in an auction draft should be to take as many owners as possible out of the running for the players you want. This isn’t going to happen early in the draft when everyone has all of their money, but it can make all the difference when you are filling out your bench. Having C.J. Spiller and Andre Johnson is better than Duke Johnson and John Brown. A good way to do this is by nominating players you don’t want, specifically defenses and kickers. Defenses can be streamed and kicker are a dime a dozen. The idea is to nominate the best players at those positions because even if no one else bids then it’s still a win for you. Either someone else bids more than $1 for a kicker or a defense, or you get the best players at that position for virtually nothing. This strategy can also be used with guys on your “do not draft” list. If you think Adrian Peterson will be a bust this year, nominate him and watch someone else spend $50+ on him. It’s one less owner bidding on the guys you want later on and that much less money left in his bank account. That being said, be careful when nominating these unwanted guys. Don’t make the initial bid too much and don’t nominate guys who are completely unknown. No one is going to waste their money on Kerwynn Williams and no one is going to one-up your starting bid of $10 for Tyrod Taylor. Nominate the guy you don’t want for $1 and move on.

Know when to get in and when to get out. There are a few definitions for the term cheat sheet: a list with values for every player, a list of players ranked from best to worst, and a list of players you are targeting or avoiding. My sheet is a combination of all three. I print one out from a website and I write what amount I’m willing to pay for each one, I especially do this for all the top-ranked players in the NFL. If I really like the player then the number I write next to his name will be higher than average, if it’s someone I don’t like at all it will be a number so low that I would be stupid to pass him up. In an auction draft you also have to know when to get out of a bidding war. At one point or another you and another owner will end up trying to outbid each other for the same player. When this happens you need to listen to your gut because if you think the price for someone is getting too high, then it probably is. If you’re going to go over by a dollar or two, especially when it’s a guy who you really want, then don’t be afraid to do it. That money can be spared and most people end up with a dollar or two at the end of the draft. The problem is when you overspend by $10+ and lose any chance at grabbing those high upside guys you want late in the draft.

Find a balance between value and need.  For one reason or another, player’s values will fluctuate throughout the draft. Maybe there was a stretch where only RBs were nominated, or no one likes the player who is on the board. The reasons don’t matter, but there will be plenty of players going for a lot less than market value. You then have to ask yourself whether you should make a bid and the answer depends on one of two questions. Is it early in the draft? Players who are going to be nominated early in the draft are most likely going to be top 20 guys at their positions. If someone is going for $20 or $30 less at this point then you’re going to want to make a bid regardless of who it is. They will be starters or at the very least good trade bait. The second question is, do you have the money and space? If you don’t then it’s ok to pass on a player. There will be 150+ players drafted so you won’t be the only owner who gets good value on a player and you won’t be the only owner with a good team. Don’t draft your 7th running back when you only have two WRs.

Bid early. This is something I’ve noticed in my drafts and falls in line with my previous point. The first players nominated in the draft, and in their respective positions, tend to be cheaper. There are two reasons why this happens. The first is that owners think they’ll be left without a significant amount of money early in the draft. Paying $30-$50 for Calvin Johnson isn’t a lot, but when you’re the only owner who doesn’t have $200 left, it can seem like a disadvantage. The second reason is that the market value hasn’t been set. No one knows if $40 is too much for a player when he’s the first player taken at that position. We fool ourselves into thinking that the $40 price point is too high and that the next guy will be cheaper, if not the same price. All you have to do is look at other drafts to know this is not the case and all you’ve done is talk yourself out of a top 5 guy at a great price.

Auction drafts aren’t dependent on a single strategy and will vary from league to league. My intention is to give you an advantage through the use of guidelines that aren’t specific to a certain format or league. Hopefully you can use these guidelines to create the team you want at a value you’re happy with.

tiering

5 Steps of Risk Management : Draft Using Tiers

tiering

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 5: Draft Using Tiers

Keep your cool

Step 5 is not about accessing how risky a player is, but reducing your risk of making rash decisions during the draft. You are on the clock and the player you were targeting gets snagged right before your pick. Do you panic? Where do you go from there?

Everybody has players that they are targeting and want to get, but every draft is different and your draft position does not always come when you want it. To avoid a dreaded last second gut pick you will need to do a bit of pre-draft preparation. Drafting by tiers is not a new concept but some people still don’t know about it. Rather than panicking and just grabbing the next best ADP player, break up each position into tiers of players that you see at a similar expected output.

The 1st tier is filled with players that you would be happy with as the #1 for that position.

The 2nd tier is filled with players that you could live with as your #2 for that position.

Tiering continues as you fit the rest of the players into groups that you predict will have similar output. Anytime you feel there is a drop off in skill level move on to the next tier until you have gone through your rankings. Color-coding your tiers can make reading the list during your draft easier.

Now that you have your tiers completed how do you use them in the draft? Tiering can help you determine when you should take players at different positions and whom an equivalent pick is if your favorite player gets sniped.  Say you are drafting 8th in a 10-man league. There are two tier 1 running backs left and five tier 1 wide receivers. Knowing that you pick again in four turns you can grab a running back knowing there will be a #1 wide receiver when it comes back to your turn. Another example is if AJ Green is the last of your tier 1 receivers and he is snatched from your grasps. You can check your tiers and see that there are plenty of tier 2 receivers left, so you can look to grab a tier 1 player from a different position.

Tiers are one method of assuring you have a smooth draft, but not the only one. What is important is that you are able to keep a level head during your draft and do not let the clock get the best of you. So plan ahead with whatever works for you, take your risks at the right time and best of luck in the 2015 season.

Check out step 1 here!

nelsonsized

5 Steps of Risk Management : Lottery Tickets

nelsonsized

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 4: Lottery Tickets Late

You can’t win if you don’t play.

So far the first three steps have been about reducing risk, but this isn’t “The 5 Steps of Risk Reduction,” now is it? While the first half of the draft is searching for a sure thing, the second half is all about grabbing guys with upside. Every year there are players who come out of nowhere and blow up the league. Whether it is a rookie or a backup poised to take the lead role there are players that have undeniable upside but a non-existent floor. Now not all of these guys will pan out, but when you’re drafting a player who is likely to ride your bench for the season, they don’t have to. A 2014 example is Emmanuel Sanders. At ADP 80+ he was a steal finishing as a top 10 WR. Sanders was a player with many of the question marks that Step 3 talked about. He was moving to a new team and his record was not amazing. He was moving into a better situation though and at his price your team wasn’t shot if he didn’t pan out.

For the 2015 season rookies like Nelson Agholor are prime targets. With Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin both leaving the Eagles, Agholor is in a great position to fill in where they left off. He is 6’0 198lbs and runs a 4.42 40. His route running is clean and he should easily be able to beat out the weak NFC East secondaries. He has the opportunity for a 1,200 yard 8 TD rookie season and for a 7th round pick that is incredible value.

If there is a player you think is going to break out don’t be afraid to reach for them after the 7th round. With your core team picked you are looking for that difference maker who can win you the championship. Just don’t risk one of your early rounds going to waste when there is so much talent that early in the draft.

Check out step 5 here!

Frankgoresized

5 Steps of Risk Management: Pass on the Questionables

Frankgoresized

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 3: Pass on the Questionables

Pick the Periods, Not the Question Marks.

While drafting everyone is aiming to get value out of his or her picks. Being able to pin down a player’s value is incredibly important, though it is not always easy. There were many trades during the 2015 off-season and star players from last year have found new homes. Some of those players are going to thrive on their new teams, while other players will be stripped of their fantasy stardom.

An example of a likely to thrive player is Frank Gore. He looks to improve from his 2014 season, because he is on the best team that he has played with in ages. Last year, the San Francisco 49ers finished 30th in passing yards per game. With no throwing threat Gore had the box stacked against him more than any running back in the league. In his new Colts offense the defenses are going to be hard pressed to pressure him. Andrew Luck will be slinging the ball leaving Gore with plenty of room to work. Gore has been a top 20 running back consistently since 2005 and when fit into a consistent offense like the Colts you know what you can expect.

On the other end of the spectrum there is Julius Thomas. The former Denver tight end, Thomas was traded to the Jacksonville Jaguars where his fantasy future is nothing but question marks. He put up great numbers with Peyton and the Broncos but his value is hard to judge now that he has moved to the worst offense in the league. We know he is an athletic player with plenty of skill and that his numbers are going to fall off this year, but the question is how much will they fall off? Deciding where to draft Thomas is based on plenty of speculation and while he may do amazing he could also crash and burn.

Avoiding players going to worse offensive teams is one thing to look for, but also players moving to a new type of offense. Jimmy Graham recently has moved from the New Orleans Saints to the Seattle Seahawks. He has moved from a passing first team to the land of the run first offense and with that move is some question marks. Graham is another example of a great athletic player and in the past one of the few elite tight ends. His past performances put him in an interesting place. He is a great player on a good offense, but how much will he get used? His price tag has him going as the second tight end off the board. A risky proposition for a player whose stats could vary so much from past years. Graham could continue to be an elite tight end but there are other players who have upside and safe floors. So why risk it? If you can ensure that your first 5 picks don’t crash and burn neither should your season. An unknown floor is a risk that can be mitigated. Let others take their risks on their early picks. You can take yours on fliers later in the draft.

Check out step 4 here!

arian-fostersized

5 Steps of Risk Management: Don’t Risk the IR

arian-fostersized

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 2: Don’t Risk the IR

Any player can be injured and there is no such thing as a sure bet, but you can get pretty close and that is what you are going to do. If you don’t make it to the playoffs, then you won’t even get a chance for the ship. Having a player go down can put an end to your season. Having a star player out for even 2 or 3 games can be the difference between who goes all the way.

Sticking with the “your first pick can’t win you the season, but it can certainly lose it,” motto we’re going to mitigate risk with our early picks and press our luck later in the draft. While the “safe” fantasy picks don’t guarantee a win, you only have to be above the average to make it to the playoffs. There are some players with questionable track records and when your pick comes between one of them and another it could be the difference between floating and swimming.

An example that has already played out this year is Arian Foster. He is the definition of a player who is high-risk high-reward. Soft tissue injuries plagued him all last season and for the third season in a row he was entering as one of the highest injury risk players. Foster is almost guaranteed to miss some games each season and while he could potentially be running back #1 for the season, so can many more safe bets around his ADP.

2015 NFL Groin Foster tore his groin muscle off the bone in his first padded practice. He needed surgery and was placed on IR/designated for return
2014 NFL Groin Foster pulled his groin in week 9. He missed 2 games as a result
2014 NFL Leg Foster injured his hamstring in the first week of preseason camp and has been sidelined for the last week
2014 NFL Leg Foster pulled his hamstring in the first week of preseason training camp and sat out for most of the sessions
2014 NFL Leg Foster pulled his hamstring in week 2 and missed the following game
2013 NFL Calf Foster suffered a calf strain in the summer and missed OTAs and the first few weeks of camp
2013 NFL Back In week 9 Foster left after the first play of the game with a herniated disc in his lumbar region on his back. He was placed on IR and underwent surgery a few days later
2012 NFL Chest Foster was pulled out of a game against the Vikings after suffering from heart arrythmia. He was able to continue playing the following week
2011 NFL Leg Foster tore his hamstring in a preseason game against the 49ers and missed 3 games this season. He then left the game against Miami after re-aggravating it.
2010 NFL Knee Arthroscopic knee injury after tearing his right Meniscus during practice.
2007 College Knee Underwent arthroscopic knee surgery for a torn left meniscus.
2006 College Ankle Foster was hampered by a nagging ankle injury vs. Florida Gators and missed 3 college games
2006 College Ankle Foster sprained his left ankle and required surgery. This plus a case of the fumbles the prior year cost his draft stock severely
2005 College Shoulder Underwent left shoulder surgery after dislocating an A/C joint

A shining example of injury avoidance, Marshawn Lynch has missed one game due to back pain in the last 5 seasons. Outside of that he has managed the pain and played at an elite level. There is no reason to think that this is the year he falls apart. Baring the fact that Foster was injured during training camp the two had similar price tags, ceilings and floors, but Lynch has far less chance to miss games.

Another route people take is handcuffing. Handcuffing is grabbing a player and their backup in case they get injured. While this strategy mitigates risk, it also costs you a bench spot for your entire season and it is not advised in small bench leagues. If you are going this route make sure that your player backup is worth holding. A prime example is Jamal Charles and Knile Davis. Charles is a consistent running back with a true handcuff. In 2014 every game that Knile got double-digit attempts he put up double-digit points.

No one wants players to get hurt, but it is inevitable that they do and when they do no mater which route you chose by letting your league mates take the injury risk you are sure to win a few weeks with their starters out.

Check out step 3 here!

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 19:  Odell Beckham Jr. #13 of the New York Giants carries the ball after the catch against the Dallas Cowboys in the first half at AT&T Stadium on October 19, 2014 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

5 Steps of Risk Management: Don’t Draft Rookies

ARLINGTON, TX - OCTOBER 19: Odell Beckham Jr. #13 of the New York Giants carries the ball after the catch against the Dallas Cowboys in the first half at AT&T Stadium on October 19, 2014 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

With the 2015 fantasy draft on the horizon, it’s time to talk strategy. Championships are won and lost during the draft and preparation goes along way to bringing one home. Scouring the internet for expert advice, crunching numbers, and mock drafting can go along way towards preparing for your draft but every one knows fantasy football is a fickle woman. One injury or bad draft pick and a season can come tumbling to an end. Don’t let that season be yours. Today we talk about risk management and how to have a good draft and a consistent season.

Step 1: Don’t Draft Rookies!

While not a rookie, Odell Beckham Junior is a perfect example. He might be a tempting first round pick with his stellar performance last year. After returning from his hamstring injury he averaged 17 fantasy points per game during the 2014 season and won the rookie of the year award. Now while that sounds sweet to some, it’s nothing but red flags to veteran drafters. There is just no reason to draft him or any unproven players in the early rounds. There is already enough proven talent on the board that the risk isn’t necessary.

At ADP 13 he is being taken in the second even first round, but look who’s around him. There is an old adage that says, “your first pick can’t win you the season, but it can certainly lose it,” and Odell is one of those players. With a short track record there is no way to tell if he will keep performing at an elite level or if there is a sophomore slump in the future. Both Calvin Johnson (ADP 15) and Jordy Nelson (ADP 19) are set to go after him in the 2015 draft. Both have been elite receivers for years in a row on good offenses with proven records.

Last years freshmen receiving class may have been the best in history and this years running backs have some of the most promise in years, but for everyone that becomes a Mike Evans there is another who doesn’t live up to the hype. In fact most of the breakout players from 2014 were drafted late or even went undrafted. Let the other owners in your league take the risks in the early rounds. Yes, that rookie might be a top 5 receiver but in the early rounds so is everyone else.

Check out step 2 here!